Hogan Lovell OffshoreBook 2023 230809 OnlinePDF - Flipbook - Page 43
Offshore Wind Worldwide 2023
43
Scenario
Stated Policies Scenario
Year
2025
2035
2050
2025
Below 2°C Scenario
2035
2050
Total installed power
capacity (GW)
2,784
4,121
5,885
3,016
4,699
6,532
Total Renewable Energy
Capacity (GW)
1,426
2,884
5,307
1,598
3,413
6,142
Hydro
388
456
533
388
456
533
Wind
450
990
2,052
515
1,250
2,656
Solar
546
1,390
2,652
651
1,650
2,870
Bio
38
37
50
40
45
60
Geothermal
0
0
2
0
1
5
Ocean
0
01
2
0
1
2
Nuclear
66
87
100
66
87
100
Fossil fuels
1,291
1,150
478
1,351
1,200
290
The focus of the outlook prepared by ERI
recently moved from renewable energy to
comprehensive energy transformation. The
latest China Energy Transformation Outlook 2023 posted by ERI sets out three new
scenarios:
(a) baseline Scenario, which forecasts future
energy development patterns based on
the present energy sector development
as well as recent internal and external
environments and risks;
(b) carbon Neutral Scenarios 1 and 2 (CNS1
and CNS2), which depict the paths
toward meeting the goals of achieving
carbon emissions peak by 2030 and
carbon neutrality by 2060, using different approaches to achieve the energy
transition goals, some of which involve
the development of new energy such as
wind power and solar PV to replace the
existing coal power and the deployment of
new technologies including electric vehicle
energy storage.9
As mentioned in the China Energy Transformation Outlook 2023, the rise in the share of
non-fossil energy in total primary energy is
predicted to continue and non-fossil energy
is expected to become the principal energy
source in China between 2040 and 2045.
Especially, under the CNS2 scenario, it is
expected that the share of non-fossil energy
will reach roughly 40% by 2035 and more
than 95% by 2060, with renewable energy
covering more than 90% of the primary energy consumption.
9 "China Energy Transformation Outlook 2023" published by NDRC Energy Research Institute of Chinese Academy of Macroeconomic Research on 12
November 2022 (CET_CETO2023-Special-Report-for-COP27_20221122.pdf).
